Here are some excerpts on this topic from Forrester :
- "Catch-up TV" generates even more revenue. No one wants to be left out of the water-cooler talk about Gabrielle's outrageous flirtation on last night's Desperate Housewives episode. Instead of stimulating time-shifting, Forrester believes that iTunes will create new demand for these "must-see" shows — a new market that Forrester calls "catch-up TV." Even loyal viewers of a TV series often miss an episode or two. If 5% of the fan base misses the broadcast and downloads it later, ABC stands to make an additional $1.5 million.
- Downloads diversify the network revenue stream. Right now nearly every dollar ABC makes ultimately comes from 30-second commercials — a "revenue monoculture" that makes the network vulnerable to technology trends like DVR ad-skipping. By tapping into direct download revenues, ABC begins the transformation to a company with multiple revenue streams, making it better able to withstand technology-based challenges.
- Time-shifting generates more revenue. Today, an episode of Desperate Housewives generates $11.3 million in ad revenue for ABC. Advertising generates only $0.45 per viewer per episode, one-third of the $1.20 or so we estimate that ABC will net from each download after Apple takes its cut. So every viewer who downloads will boost ABC's revenues. Even if 20% of the audience shifts its viewing from broadcast to iTunes downloads and ad revenue drops as a result, ABC makes an incremental $1.8 million.